Threat Modeling

Definition

Threat Modeling is a structured way of identifying what could be attacked, who might attack it, how they could attack it, and how to defend against it before an attack happens. In a CPES, it helps engineers find security weaknesses before hackers do.

The Problem That Led to It

After the power grid became a CPES, it relied on computers, sensors, and communication networks. These new digital components created new ways for attackers to break into the system. Waiting until an attack happened was too risky because it could cause blackouts or damage equipment. Engineers needed a way to think like attackers before building or deploying the system.

What Problem It Solves

Threat modeling helps engineers:

• Find weak points early.
• Predict possible attacks.
• Design stronger security before deployment.
• Reduce the chance of successful cyberattacks.

What Happens If Not Used

Security holes may go unnoticed until attackers exploit them, leading to power outages, damaged equipment, stolen data, or unsafe grid operation.

Easy Wording

Threat modeling is making a list of everything that could go wrong before it actually happens.

Layman Example

Before building a house, you check where thieves could enter and install locks, alarms, and cameras. Threat modeling does the same for a power grid.

Technical Example

Before Threat Modeling

• Build a CPES.
• Connect sensors and SCADA.
• Deploy the system.
• Attackers discover an unprotected communication channel and send fake commands.

After Threat Modeling

• List all system components (SCADA, RTUs, PLCs, sensors).
• Identify possible attackers.
• Find attack paths.
• Add authentication, encryption, firewalls, and monitoring before deployment.
• Deploy a more secure system.

Limitation

Threat modeling identifies possible threats, but it does not tell you which threats are most dangerous or deserve the highest priority.

Solution

The next concept is the Adversary Model, which focuses on who the attacker is—their skills, goals, resources, and access. Understanding the attacker helps create more realistic and effective threat models.